A new study has identified strategies to address Australia’s growing school principal turnover, with researchers urging reforms that focus on workplace commitment and the management of cognitive workload.
The research, published in the Discover Computing journal, analysed data from 1,630 Australian principals over two years using machine learning techniques. Lead researcher Dr Danling Huang from Australian Catholic University’s Institute for Positive Psychology and Education said the findings offer “actionable insights for enhancing principal retention by strengthening psychological connection to the workplace and managing cognitive workload.”
Changes urged at policy level
The study recommends education departments introduce workload-reduction policies that streamline administrative requirements and shift non-instructional tasks away from principals. It suggests providing schools with business managers, digital administration systems, and decision-support tools to reduce cognitive complexity.
Professional development should also move beyond compliance-based training and instead focus on long-term growth, leadership efficacy, and a sense of meaning at work, the researchers said.
The paper further calls for system-wide support, including national or state-funded principal wellbeing programs, structured mentoring networks, and policies that promote flexible work arrangements to ease work-family conflict.
Practical steps for schools
At the school level, the researchers recommend leadership coaching and mentoring to help principals build self-efficacy and develop more adaptive coping strategies. Schools are also encouraged to use regular feedback cycles, staff recognition, and shared goal-setting to strengthen a sense of purpose.
Education systems could also appoint executive assistants or business managers to handle finance, compliance, and scheduling, allowing principals to focus more on instructional leadership, the study said.
What the model found
The machine learning model identified workplace commitment, job satisfaction, and cognitive demands as the strongest predictors of principals’ intention to leave. The study noted that up to 50% of Australian principals plan to leave the profession before reaching retirement age.
“Commitment to the workplace, job satisfaction, and cognitive demands emerged as the strongest predictors of turnover intention,” the researchers wrote. The model achieved accuracy rates of more than 81% in predicting turnover intentions.
The research team, including co-authors Jiesi Guo, Jinran Wu, Hamed Mogouie, and Prof Theresa Dicke, said principal turnover reflects complex interactions between individual and systemic factors rather than any single cause.
The study also builds on earlier work by incorporating random effects to account for differences across states and education systems, delivering more accurate predictions than traditional statistical approaches.